Fickle

"The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." — Philip Fisher

Hey, Risers!

Choppy.

Bears regained some ground, as the week turned into a “things are so bad, they're bad” rhetoric. Treasuries kept rising as weekly auctions were listless, leading to a minor equities’ pullback. We stress that the driving force behind the Treasury surge is predominantly negative, with various data points like the breakdown in oil prices indicating a clear slowdown in global growth momentum. It was a big earnings week as well, which ran the gamut from amazement to disappointment. We will, as always, stick to our knitting and rely on a disciplined approach.

Economy & Markets

Pause.

No Cuts

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated this week that the Fed isn’t yet confident that policy is at a stance required to get inflation back to 2%. He reserved the right to raise rates again if needed and pointed out that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon.

Our take: Still a ways away from cuts.

Loan Growth

The Fed’s bank loan officer survey revealed additional weakness in loan demand and a further tightening in underwriting standards.

Our take: Headwinds persist.

Not Working

Initial jobless claims stayed flat at 217,000 from the week prior, which was revised to 220,000. Forecasts were for initial claims of 218,000.

Our take: Is the jobs market starting to crack?

Learning Block: SOFR

Secured Overnight Financing Rate.